000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010249
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 03N108W TO 06N122W TO 01N127W TO 00N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 01N TO 05N
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W AND ALSO FROM 03N AND 06N BETWEEN 112W AND
120W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N127W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. ANOTHER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 24N123W SE TO NEAR 08N88W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS AN AREA GENERALLY
FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 115W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT AS NW SWELL PROPAGATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE S-SE
AND ANCHOR NEAR 29N126W BY FRI EVENING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM 30N133W TO 25N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD REACHING FROM 30N131W TO 26N137W...AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM 27N137W TO 25N140W BY FRIDAY EVENING. NW SWELL
ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROPAGATE S-SE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH SAT MERGING WITH NE
WIND WAVES. BY SAT MORNING THE AREA OF COMBINED SEAS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 11 FT WILL COVER AN AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO
10N117W TO 03N140W.

SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 08N123W TO 02N127W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND THE TROUGH WILL
TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
TRADES JUST NW OF THE TROUGH TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN FRESH AND
STRONG LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 10 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES.

FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT. UNTIL FRI MORNING...8 FT SEAS
ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH MIXED NW WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL. 

LOOKING AHEAD...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT POSSIBLE NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SAT
NIGHT. LATEST GRID UPDATE INCORPORATING A CONSENSUS BLEND OF
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 03/0000
UTC THROUGH MON MORNING THEN PULSING LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
AND TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WITH PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW
DYNAMICS. MAXIMUM SEAS EXPECTED ARE 12 TO 14 FT WITHIN CORE AREA
OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
MCELROY