000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAR 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
      
ITCZ STRETCHES FROM 05N106W TO 05N118W TO 01N127W TO 01N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 03N TO 06N
BETWEEN 112W AND 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 03.4S102W
TO 01S106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 300
NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM OF 03N98W TO 3.4S101W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N127W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 22N140W. ANOTHER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM 24N123W SE TO NEAR 08N88W. THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS AN AREA GENERALLY
FROM 05N TO 25N W OF 115W. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT AS NW SWELL PROPAGATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
WATERS THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE S-SE
AND ANCHOR NEAR 30N126W BY FRI EVENING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM 30N132W TO 25N141W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD
REACHING FROM 30N131W TO 26N140W BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND BECOME
STATIONARY FROM 30N131W TO 25N140W. NW SWELL ACCOMPANIES THE
FRONT AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROPAGATE S-SE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH SAT MERGING WITH NE WIND WAVES. BY
SAT MORNING THE AREA OF COMBINED SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT
WILL COVER AN AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO 10N116W TO
02N140W.

SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 08N122W TO 02N123W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND THE TROUGH WILL
TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE
TRADES JUST NW OF THE TROUGH TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN FRESH AND
STRONG LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE ONCOMING NW SWELL ON
FRI.

FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
8 FT IN THIS AREA WITH MIXED NW WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL.

LOOKING AHEAD...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT POSSIBLE NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SAT
NIGHT. LATEST GRID UPDATE INCORPORATING A CONSENSUS BLEND OF
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 03/0000
UTC THROUGH MON MORNING THEN PULSING LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
AND TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WITH PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW
DYNAMICS. MAXIMUM SEAS EXPECTED ARE 12 TO 14 FT WITHIN CORE AREA
OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
MCELROY