000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311532
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU MAR 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N106W TO 05N122W TO 01N127W TO
01N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 01N122W TO 09N121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 06N BETWEEN 112W AND 119W...AND FROM 00.5N TO 02.5N
BETWEEN 133W AND 138W. OTHER EQUATORIAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SURFACE TROUGH IS OCCURRING S OF 00N
BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N128W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO 26N130W THEN SW TO BEYOND
22N140W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N130W SE TO NEAR 14N110W.
THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES ACROSS AN AREA GENERALLY FROM 03N TO 20N W OF 120W. SEAS
ACROSS THIS AREA RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO A RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT AS NW SWELL PROPAGATES ACROSS THE
WESTERN WATERS BY FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE S-
SE AND ANCHOR NEAR 30N126W BY FRI MORNING.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD REACHING
FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W FRI MORNING...THEN WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM 30N130W TO 27N132W BY SAT MORNING. NW
SWELL ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL
PROPAGATE S-SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS THROUGH SAT
MERGING WITH NE WIND WAVES AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SOUTHERLY
SWELL. BY SAT MORNING THE AREA OF COMBINED SEAS RANGING FROM 8
TO 11 FT WILL COVERING AN AREA W OF A LINE FROM 30N119W TO
24N114W TO 09N118W TO 01N140W.

SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 01N122W TO 09N121W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE N AND THE TROUGH WILL
TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING FOR
TRADES NW OF THE TROUGH TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES...EVENTUALLY MERGING
WITH THE ONCOMING NW SWELL ON FRI.

FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA WITH MIXED NW WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL.

LOOKING AHEAD...GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NEXT POSSIBLE NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE SAT
NIGHT. LATEST GRID UPDATE INCORPORATING A CONSENSUS BLEND OF
GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY 03/0000
UTC THROUGH MON MORNING THEN PULSING LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING
AND TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WITH PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW
DYNAMICS. MAXIMUM SEAS EXPECTED ARE 12 TO 14 FT WITHIN CORE AREA
OF STRONGEST WINDS.

$$
HUFFMAN