000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310254
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N124W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.
 
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N93W TO 03N102W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 115 NM OF
05N86W...AND ALSO WITHIN 135 NM OF 02N101W.

...DISCUSSION...                

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 36N130W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH 22N118W TO 10N102W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES
PRIMARILY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN W OF
95W. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SE TO NEAR 31N128W BY 24 HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS FROM THE W.

NW SWELL OF 8-11 FT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT W OF A LINE FROM
30N137W TO 26N140W. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
MOVES N. THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE
NW WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO NEAR 120W.

BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW OF THE RIDGE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND
TROUGHING WILL TIGHTEN...ALLOWING FOR TRADES NW OF THE TROUGH TO
INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THE AREA
OF FRESH TRADES...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE ONCOMING NW SWELL
BY FRI AFTERNOON.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT N OF THE
EQUATOR BY 12 HOURS.

A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
EARLY THU. AS A RESULT...NW WINDS FUNNELING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
LEVELS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT.
  
$$
MCELROY