000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N124W TO 02N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS PRESENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.
 
A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N82W TO 04N90W TO 02N98W TO
04N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND ALSO WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

...DISCUSSION...                

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N131W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH 25N127W TO 12N95W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FORMERLY JUST
SW OF THE RIDGE HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES PRIMARILY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN W OF 95W. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SE TO NEAR 31N128W BY 24
HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE INCREASED TO
FRESH TO STRONG N OF 28N W OF 138W WITH ASSOCIATED NW SWELL OF 8-
10 FT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES N. THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT NEAR 30N140W.

BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SW OF THE RIDGE THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND
TROUGHING WILL TIGHTEN...ALLOWING FOR TRADES NW OF THE TROUGH TO
INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THE AREA
OF FRESH TRADES...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE ONCOMING NW SWELL
BY FRI AFTERNOON.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT N OF THE
EQUATOR BY 24 HOURS.

A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY
EARLY THU. AS A RESULT...NW WINDS FUNNELING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG
LEVELS...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. MEANWHILE...WINDS WITHIN
60 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 25.5N TO 27.5N WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY THU AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY
THU EVENING AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SLIGHTLY.
  
$$
LEWITSKY