000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

NORTHERN TROUGH FROM 05N86W TO 05N92W TO 02N105W TO 03N124W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 86W
AND 91W. SOUTHERN TROUGH FROM 02S110W TO BEYOND 03.4S120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 112W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

A 1022 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N130W EXTENDS A
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 18N110W. A SURFACE LOW IS
TO THE S-SE OF THE RIDGE NEAR 09N115W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW AND CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE NOTED NEAR THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO
A POSITION NEAR 30N131W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THIS OCCURS...THE
LOW PRES WILL MOVE TO THE SW TO NEAR 04N121W BY 24 HOURS...THEN
OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM NW
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA...SEAS OF
8-9 FT ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL. AN AREA OF
SEAS TO 8 FT WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS ONLY PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 110W. 

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION
TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE NW WATERS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS S
TO SW WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-11 FT N
OF 28N W OF 138W BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE
REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N139W TO 28N140W BY TONIGHT...AND
FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W BY THU NIGHT WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION COVERING THE WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N126W TO 16N130W TO 07N140W BY THU NIGHT...AND
RAISING SEAS TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 30N140W BY THU AFTERNOON.

A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON THU. AS THIS OCCURS...
EXPECT NW WINDS FUNNELING AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8
FT AS THESE WINDS INCREASE.

AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST CONTINUES TO GENERATE AND SEND FRESH NW SWELL N OF 27N
BETWEEN 116W AND 125W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS
THAN 8 FT WED AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
S-CENTRAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT
COVERING THE WATERS E OF 110W TO A LINE FROM 03.4S90W TO 08N98W
BY TONIGHT. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU
AFTERNOON. 
   
$$
GR