000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.               
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC
WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER E AND W
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WATERS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE SW TO
W WINDS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BETWEEN 29.5N AND 31N TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 9 FT. THE WIND FIELD WILL QUICKLY BEGIN DIMINISHING TUE
EVENING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N100W TO 04N110W TO 06N124W TO
04N140W. SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02S104W TO 01S110W TO
03S115W TO 02S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02S
BETWEEN 103W AND 111W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 99W AND
102W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 09N
BETWEEN 110W AND 117W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               A
1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
46N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S TO 30N134W THEN SE TO NEAR
20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS MAINLY FROM 06N-
20N W OF 125W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT N AS THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE WEAKENS. A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE NW
CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON WED EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. 

SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NW SWELL ACROSS
THE N WATERS...ESPECIALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W THROUGH
WED EVENING.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9
FT COVERING THE WATERS GENERALLY S OF 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W.

A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR 06N117W TUE EVENING.
WITHIN 360 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WINDS ARE FORECAST 20 KT OR
LESS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WED EVENING LOW PRES 04N122W 1011 MB
WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
 
GAP WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THIS TIME WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TUE. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 TO 7 FT.
   
$$
FORMOSA