000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.               
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY BETWEEN DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN EAST PACIFIC
WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER E AND W
ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WATERS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN NEAR GALE TO GALE
FORCE SW TO W WINDS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY N OF 29N TONIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 8 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 29.5N TO 30.5N. THE WIND
FIELD WILL QUICKLY BEGIN DIMINISHING EARLY TUE. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N91W TO 04N95W TO 06N110W
TO 06N123W TO 04N131W TO 04N140W. THE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 03.4S93W TO 01S99W TO 03.4S111W TO 02S120W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W...
AND FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 128W AND 137W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 10N BETWEEN 110W AND
117W...AND S OF 01S BETWEEN 103W AND 110W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               
A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
46N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS S TO 31N136W THEN SE TO NEAR
20N108W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS MAINLY FROM 06N-
20N W OF 125W. SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE NOTED PER ALTIMETER DATA
WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES. MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE ALSO
NOTED PER EARLIER OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT N AS THE
ASSOCIATED RIDGE WEAKENS. A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUE. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE
COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE N
WATERS...ESPECIALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W THROUGH WED.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9
FT COVERING THE WATERS GENERALLY S OF 04N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ITCZ BY TUE
MORNING EXTENDING FROM 11N116W TO 07N120W. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD AND DEVELOP A WEAK LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 08N119W. AN
AREA OF 8 FT SEAS TO THE W OF THE TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
ABOVE MENTIONED CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL BY TUE NIGHT.
 
GAP WINDS...GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING THIS TIME WITH THE ASSISTANCE
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TUE. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD
TO 6 TO 7 FT.
   
$$
HUFFMAN