000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY BETWEEN A DEVELOPING
LOW PRES SYSTEM ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OF THE UNITED STATES
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EPAC. ADDITIONALLY...A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER E AND W ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPING OF
STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...PARTICULARLY N OF 29N TONIGHT. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 8 FT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF
WATERS NEAR 30.5N. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY TUE.
REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N87W TO 02N94W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES FROM 02N94W TO 03N110W THEN RESUMES AT 06N122W TO
BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 98W AND 102W... FROM 02N TO
04N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W...FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND
116W...AND FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W.
 
...DISCUSSION... 

A 1033 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
43N140W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 15N108W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS
THE WESTERN WATERS MAINLY FROM 06N-20N W OF 125W. SEAS OF 6 TO 8
FT ARE NOTED PER ALTIMETER DATA WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES.
MODERATE TO FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER
DATA ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE HIGH PRES IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NE AS A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM
THE W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS JUST OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE N
WATERS...ESPECIALLY N OF 22N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W BASED ON THE
MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES. THESE SEAS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE TO
8 FT OR LESS THIS MORNING BEFORE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO 9 FT IN
NW SWELL ON TUESDAY. 
 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL
WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-9 FT
COVERING THE WATERS S OF LINE FROM 03.4S100W TO 01N110W TO
02N120W TO 00N127W BY TONIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE ITCZ IN ABOUT
12-24 HOURS EXTENDING FROM 12N116W TO 04N121W BY TONIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND A WEAK LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS BY WED NIGHT. AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 FT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED CROSS EQUATORIAL SW
SWELL BY TUE NIGHT. 
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE CROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PEAK
NEAR 25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT
OR LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT
SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 TO 7 FT WITH THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS GULF AND DOWNWIND TO ABOUT 06N TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT. 
   
$$
GR