000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280224 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAR 28 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CONUS DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EPAC WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS WEEK. ADDITIONALLY A THERMAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER E AND W ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 30-31N EARLY MON...THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATE MON. EXPECT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP ON MON EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 8 FT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 30.5N. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA TRAILS A SURFACE TROUGH SW ACROSS W COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING S OF 04N WITHIN 30 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA. A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 09N86W TO 02N100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF 04N96W. SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AT 07N110W AND WIGGLES SW TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N114W TO 03N129W TO 07N138W. A SOUTHERN ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 01N95WTO 01S102W TO 04N108W BUT CURRENTLY LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 23N120W TO BEYOND 15N107W THIS WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EPAC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 117-120W ON MON...INCREASING BRIEFLY TO STRONG TO THE N OF 31N ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX ON TUE WITH GENTLE NW WINDS AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS W OF 105W ON WED...EXCEPT FRESH NW WINDS ARE FORECAST S OF 27N WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WED THROUGH FRI RESULTING IN 6-8 FT SEAS BY FRI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEK. S OF 15N E OF 110W... NOCTURNAL PULSES OF STRONG ENE WINDS WILL RESUME ACROSS...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO AGAIN ON MON NIGHT. ONLY FRESH DRAINAGE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON TUE NIGHT. FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE N WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-8 FT SEAS WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-120W ON ON TUE...REACHING TO ALONG 05N BETWEEN 98-106W ON WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP N OF 27N W OF 138W BRIEFLY ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 32N138W TO 28N140W ON WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ON THU STALLING FROM 32N126W TO 24N140W ON FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE WED...THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8-12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 18N140W ON THU. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED N OF THE ITCZ AND 120W ON FRI NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 08N121W ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH N-NE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM W OF THE LOW ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SE ON WED WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THU EVENING. $$ NELSON