000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
2205 UTC SUN MAR 27 2015 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.               
  
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CONUS DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK STRENGTHENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW PRESSURE AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE JUST TO THE SW OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY A
THERMAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK. FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FROM 30-31N EARLY
MON...THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATE MON.
EXPECT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ON MON NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING
TO ABOUT 8 FT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 30.5N.
THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH ON TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER NW COLOMBIA AT 10N74W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA FROM 05N77W TO 02N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING WITHIN 60 NM OF 04.5N77.5W.

A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N84W TO 06N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 05N85W TO 05N105W. 

SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AT 05N105W AND
CONTINUES NW TO 07N113W...THEN TURNS SW TO 04N126W...THEN W TO
BEYOND 140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N112W TO
03N125W...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N131W TO
07N139W. 

A SOUTHERN ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 01N95W TO 0.5S102W TO 03N110W
BUT CURRENTLY LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  
 
...DISCUSSION...
 
N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MEANDER FROM NEAR 23N120W TO BEYOND 15N107W THIS WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH NW FLOW WITH SEAS OF 6-9 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EPAC WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 117-120W ON MON...INCREASING
BRIEFLY TO STRONG TO THE N OF 31N ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX TUE WITH GENTLE NW WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS W OF
105W ON WED...EXCEPT FRESH NW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE S OF 27N WED THROUGH FRI RESULTING IN
6-8 FT BY FRI. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEK. 

S OF 15N E OF 110W... 

NOCTURNAL PULSES OF STRONG ENE WINDS WILL RESUME ACROSS...AND
JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO
AGAIN ON MON NIGHT. ONLY FRESH DRAINAGE FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON TUE NIGHT.
 
FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PANAMA OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE N WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. 
 
LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7-8
FT SEAS WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-120W ON ON
TUE...REACHING TO ALONG 05N BETWEEN 98-106W ON WED BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.
 
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP N OF 27N W OF 138W
BRIEFLY ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 32N138W TO
28N140W ON WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ON THU STALLING
FROM 32N126W TO 24N140W ON FRI NIGHT. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE WED THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS OF 8-12 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 32N130W TO 18N140W ON THU.
COMBINED SEAS OF 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED N OF THE ITCZ AND 120W ON
FRI NIGHT.
 
A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 08N121W
ON MON NIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT FRESH N-NE WINDS WITHIN
ABOUT 240 NM W OF THE LOW ON TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SE ON WED WITH THE GRADIENT
RELAXING. 
   
$$
NELSON