000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRES SYSTEM
OVER THE SW OF UNITED STATES WILL GENERATE STRONG TO MINIMAL
GALE FORCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA ON TUE BETWEEN 00-12Z. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 8
FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT BY LATE TUE MORNING AS
THE LOW PRES SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

FROM LATE FEBRUARY TO EARLY APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ
CAN BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ONE ON EACH SIDE OF
THE EQUATOR. EARLY THIS MORNING...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N84W
TO 05N91W TO 03N97W. THE NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM
03N97W TO 07N114W TO 03N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN
87W AND 92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 116W
AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
02N TO 05N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. THE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 03.4S96W TO 02S101W TO 03.4S110W TO 03S118W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
 
A 1027 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED N OF THE FORECAST
REGION NEAR 34N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS PRIMARILY FROM 07N-18N W OF 125W
BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED PER
ALTIMETER DATA WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE HIGH PRES WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES
CURRENTLY SITUATED BEHIND A COLD FRONT LOCATED N OF AREA. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH TUE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS OVER WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W
AND 126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE
WIND SPEEDS. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS OF 8 FT IN NW SWELL
REACHING AS FAR AS 23N BETWEEN 116W AND 128W. MAXIMUM SEAS ALONG
30N ARE 10-12 FT AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT BY EARLY MON MORNING.
 
A LINGERING AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT
OR GREATER GENERALLY COVERS THE WATERS S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
95W AND 120W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...A
NEW PULSE OF SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL WILL CROSS THE
EQUATOR TODAY AND BUILD SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE S OF A LINE
FROM 03.4S100W TO 02N110W TO 02N120W TO 00N125W BY MON NIGHT.
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR
25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SEAS
TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
   
$$
GR