000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270216 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN MAR 27 2015 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N84W TO 05N95W TO 02N100W TO 06N111W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES WSW TO BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED E OF 94W WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH... AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM OF THE TROUGH AND ITCZ TO THE W OF 105W. ...DISCUSSION... N OF 15N E OF 120W... A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER FROM NEAR 23N120W TO BEYOND 15N107W THROUGH NEXT FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTATED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL SHIFT W JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN...THEN DRIFT BACK E OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA ON SUN NIGHT...AND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY ALONG THE TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF ON MON. EXPECT STRONG...TO NEAR GALE FORCE... WESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP EARLY MON OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BETWEEN 29.5N AND 31N...AND PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO ABOUT 7 FT. AROUND ROUND OF STRONG SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY DEVELOP ALONG 30N ON TUE NIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH NW FLOW WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT...CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE EPAC N OF 27N E OF 120W...WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS...AND 4-6 FT SEAS...FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN LATE SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND 6-8 FT SEAS...EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH TUE EVENING. LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE W OF 96W WITH 4-7 FT SEAS THROUGH WED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH MID WEEK. S OF 15N E OF 110W... NOCTURNAL PULSES OF STRONG ENE WINDS WILL RESUME ACROSS...AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVERNIGHT AND ALSO AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT...THEN ONLY FRESH DRAINAGE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PANAMA OVERNIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT WITH MODERATE N WINDS EXPECTED ON MON NIGHT. LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IN THE FORM OF 7- 8FT SEAS WILL SPREAD N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100-120W ON BRIEFLY ON TUE. ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W... BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ACROSS THE NE PORTION...FROM 30-32N BETWEEN 120-126W WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT. ENHANCED SEAS OF 8-12 FT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 120-130W WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON SUN NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP N OF 27N W OF 138W ON WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 32N137W TO 28N140W ON WED NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE E ON THU STALLING FROM 32N129W TO 24N140W ON FRI. LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE EQUATORIAL WATERS BETWEEN 100-120W ON MON NIGHT THROUGH RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. $$ NELSON