000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261512
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

DURING LATE WINTER TO EARLY SPRING SEASONS...FROM LATE FEBRUARY
TO EARLY APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ CAN BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ONE ON EACH SIDE OF THE EQUATOR.
TODAY...THE NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05.5N86W TO 06N108W
TO 03N120W TO BEYOND 03.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN
90W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS W OF 113W. THE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 01.5S87W TO 03S99W TO 02S118W TO BEYOND 02S120W.
UNUSUALLY ACTIVE AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG
AND S OF THE SOUTHERN ITCZ...WHERE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01.5S TO 07S BETWEEN
90W AND 112W.
 
...DISCUSSION...
 
A 1028 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE IS STATIONARY NORTH OF THE
AREA...LOCATED NEAR 34N136W...AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AT 19N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
PRIMARILY FROM 05N-18N W OF 117W BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER
DATA. SEAS OF 6-8 FT ARE NOTED PER ALTIMETER DATA WITHIN THE
AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
AND WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...THE HIGH WILL BE
REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS OVER WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 117W
AND 125W. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TODAY COVERING
MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AND BEGIN TO
RETREAT TOWARD THE N BY THIS EVENING. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED SEAS
8 FT IN NW SWELL REACHING AS FAR AS 27N AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD SOUTHWARD OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
THROUGH SUN. MAXIMUM SEAS ALONG 30N ARE 10-12 FT THIS MORNING
AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
 
A LINGERING AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT
OR GREATER GENERALLY COVERS THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN
130W AND 138W...FROM 06N TO 16N W OF 138W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN
96W AND 120W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 130W
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW PULSE OF SW SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL
WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR TODAY AND MAINTAIN SEAS NEAR 8 FT FROM
01N TO 02N AND W OF 95W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR
25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SEAS
TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT WITH THESE WINDS.
  
$$
STRIPLING