000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC THU MAR 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.               
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE... 

DURING LATE WINTER TO EARLY SPRING SEASONS...FROM LATE FEBRUARY
TO EARLY APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ CAN BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ONE ON EACH SIDE OF THE EQUATOR.
TODAY...THE NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N89W TO 05N104W TO
06N110W TO 03N120W TO 04N135W TO 03N120W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 06N TO
10N BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. THE SOUTHERN ITCZ
AXIS IS FROM 01S87W TO 03S100W TO 02S107W TO 02S120W. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND ITCZ IS MAINLY S OF 03.4S. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
 
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 35N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND
LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS PRIMARILY FROM 08N-18N W
OF 125W BASED ON LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. SEAS OF 7-9 FT ARE
NOTED PER ALTIMETER DATA WITHIN THE AREA OF THE TRADE WINDS. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN...THE HIGH PRES WILL BE REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH MON.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A TROUGH
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
N-NW WINDS OVER WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W ACCORDING
TO THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD TODAY COVERING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W
AND 130W...AND BEGIN TO RETREAT TOWARD THE N BY THIS EVENING.
ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS OVER 8 FT IN NW SWELL REACHING AS FAR
AS 27N AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD OFF THE W COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH SUN. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 10-11 FT.
 
A LINGERING AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT
OR GREATER GENERALLY COVERS THE WATERS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
114W AND 121W...AND S OF A LINE FROM 03.4N95W TO 01N103W TO
01N114W TO 00N120W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVENT ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS
N OF THE EQUATOR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE ACROSS THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR
25 KT DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR
LESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SEAS
TO BUILD TO 6-7 FT WITH THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
TO ABOUT 06N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS 
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FT. 
   
$$
GR