000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC FRI MAR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1300 UTC.              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 03N90W TO 05N109W TO
02N125W TO 03N140W. THE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM
03.4S102W TO 01S116W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 90W-102W...FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 100W-111W...AND FROM 00N-07N BETWEEN 113W-127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF 00N BETWEEN 106W-114W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

1030 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA
NEAR 36N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE THROUGH 25N128W TO 16N110W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EQUATORIAL
TROUGHING IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE
WESTERN WATERS PRIMARILY FROM 10N-22N W OF 127W BASED ON
SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
ENCROACHES UPON IT FROM THE NW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SUN MORNING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND TROUGHING
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS FORCING AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG
N-NW WINDS OVER WATERS N OF 31N BETWEEN 120W-125W ACCORDING TO
THE ASCAT-B PASS FROM 0554 UTC. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE S
ALONG THE COAST IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. FRESH TO
STRONG N-NW WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TODAY AND BEGIN TO
RETREAT SUN AS THE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EASTWARD. ALTIMETER DATA SHOWS SEAS OVER 8 FT IN NW SWELL
HAVE ALREADY REACHED AS FAR S AS 29N AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE THROUGH SUN.
MAXIMUM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 FT JUST SW OF THE CHANNEL
ISLANDS NEAR 32N121W DURING THE DAY SAT.
 
A LINGERING AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS 8 FT
OR GREATER GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA S OF 14N BETWEEN 100W AND
133W. SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
EQUATOR SAT NIGHT.
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO HAS
BROUGHT A BRIEF PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG N WIND IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT RAPIDLY RETREATS
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO RIDING BUILDING OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL PEAK NEAR 25 KT DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 6-7
FT WITH THESE WINDS.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA
TO ABOUT 06N ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY...WITH WINDS
REMAINING BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD ON SUN MORNING. SEAS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 6 FT. 

$$
SCHAUER