000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241454
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1605 UTC THU MAR 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1230 UTC.              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N83W TO 03N93W TO 05N104W...THEN
BECOMES A NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS TO 03N118W. A SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS
WAS ANALYZED FROM 01S103W TO BEYOND 02S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 102W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 105 NM EITHER SIDE OF SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS
W OF 114W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

1031 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N133W. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH TO THE ISLAS
REVILLAGIGEDO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND EQUATORIAL TROUGHING IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES FROM 08N-20N BETWEEN 122W-131W ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
ASCAT PASS. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT N AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST TRADES
DIMINISHING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
SAT MORNING AND SHIFT SW AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES UPON IT FROM
THE NW. 

LARGE NW SWELL COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND W OF A LINE FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO 08N97W TO
03N95W...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 11 FT AROUND WITHIN THE
AREA OF STRONG TRADES NEAR 10N120W. THE AREA OF SEAS GREATER
THAN 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT S INTO WATERS S OF 02N BY SAT
MORNING.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD OVER FAR NE WATERS BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES EARLY FRI. WINDS N OF 30N WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO
STRONG NW-N BREEZE AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-12 FT BY SUNRISE FRI
N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-130W. SEAS OVER 8 FT WILL SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED N OF 29N BY SAT MORNING.
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH AND A COLD FRONT OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 27N-
29N ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAPIDSCAT PASS. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS TODAY. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL PASS S THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND
SEND A BRIEF PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG N WIND INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AROUND SUNRISE FRI. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
RETREAT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY FRI AS RIDING BUILDS OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE FRESH TO STRONG N
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY FRI AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW
E-NE WINDS TO PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SAT MORNING. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
SHOULD SHRINK CLOSER TO THE COAST EACH DAY AS THE RIDGING
WEAKENS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. 

$$
SCHAUER