000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS 
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC THU MAR 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

A DOUBLE ITCZ STRUCTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC THIS MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N83W TO
05N96W...WHERE THE NORTHERN ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 04N110W
TO 06N123W TO BEYOND 04N140W. THE SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM
01S96W TO 01S110W TO BEYOND 01S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE
NORTHERN ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 127W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NORTHERN ITCZ AND SURFACE
TROUGH E OF 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS W OF 115W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
35N133W SE TO NEAR 14N100W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE NORTHERN ITCZ IS PRODUCING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADES S OF 28N AND W OF 120W. THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN SIMILAR WIND CONDITIONS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE
BASIN. 

FARTHER TO THE EAST...THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A COLD
FRONT OVER MEXICO HAS LOOSENED SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS
RESULTING IN MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW TO N WINDS OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 25N...WITH SIMILAR WINDS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. THE NW SWELL OVER THIS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S TO SE WITH SEAS DROPPING BELOW 8 FT
N OF 20N TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND A NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN US WILL SUPPORT
STRONG WINDS N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...INDUCING ADDITIONAL
SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT THAT WILL PROPAGATE S OF 30N E OF 133W BY
FRI AFTERNOON.  

GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE OVER N CENTRAL
MEXICO THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE OVER THE E PAC AND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG
NW TO N WINDS THROUGH THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 TO 25 KT LATER THIS
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT DEPARTS THE REGION. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW GULF
OF MEXICO ON FRI WHICH WILL SETUP A VERY BRIEF PULSE OF FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING FRI MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A BROAD RIDGE AXIS FROM W ATLC TO W CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 20
TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH SEAS TO 9 FEET
PROPAGATING W OF THE GULF TO NEAR 91W THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN SLIGHTLY TODAY. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS WINDS
WILL STILL NOCTURNALLY PULSE TO NEAR 25 KT OVER A SMALLER
PORTION OF THE GULF AREA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WITH THE SMALLER
FETCH OF STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND FRI NIGHT...SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. 

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE
GULF OF PANAMA EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW
20 KT LATER THIS MORNING. SEAS TO 8 FT WILL SUBSIDE AND
PROPAGATE SE OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. 

$$
LATTO