000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231505 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED MAR 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N87W TO 04N93W TO 04N120W TO 03N140W. A SOUTHERN ITCZ WAS ANALYZED FROM 03.4S96W TO 01S107W TO 02S117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ITCZ BETWEEN 96W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF 01S BETWEEN 90W-94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 120W-132W AND FROM 03N-11N W OF 132W. ...DISCUSSION... 1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N131W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH 19N130W TO 19N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE NORTHERN ITCZ IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. THE HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY OR LOCATION...MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH FRI. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES HAS BROUGHT A FRESH TO STRONG N-NW BREEZE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE N OF 30N BETWEEN 118W-121W ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE ENHANCING THE NW SWELL OVER NE WATERS...WITH SEAS HERE TO 14 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE NW SWELL COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA W OF 110W...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING AROUND 12 FT NEAR 06N136W. THE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E-SE INTO WATERS S OF 14N AND COMBINE WITH SWELL GENERATED BY CENTRAL AMERICAN GAP WINDS...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT BY SUNRISE FRI. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD ONCE AGAIN OVER FAR NE WATERS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A NEW COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY FRI. WINDS N OF 30N WILL INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG NW-N BREEZE AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 FT BY SUNRISE FRI N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-130W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE...A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AT THE MOMENT. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N- NW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO 27N-30N BY THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20-25 KT TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE N WATERS. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE THROUGH CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING. EARLY FRI...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND SEND A NEW PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG N WIND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SUNRISE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND FORCED WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELIEVED TO BE AS STRONG AS 30 KT HERE. THE RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PULSE TO AS HIGH AS 25 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU AS WELL AS LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. SWELLS GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT ARE PROPAGATING FROM THE SOURCE REGION AND MERGING WITH SWELLS PREVIOUSLY GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND LONG- PERIOD NW SWELL. CURRENTLY...SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT IN THIS MIXED SWELL EXTEND AS FAR W AS 110W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA HAS FORCED A FRESH TO STRONG N-NW BREEZE S-SW OF THE GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N80W TO 04N82W. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY AS HIGH PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WEAKENS. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 8 FT. $$ SCHAUER