000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC WED MAR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

A NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 04N115W TO 04N130W
TO BEYOND 04N140W. A SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04S87W TO
00N110W TO BEYOND 02S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NORTHERN ITCZ BETWEEN 131W AND 138W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE NORTHERN ITCZ BETWEEN 96W AND 103W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
ITCZ BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N131W
HAS AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS SE TO NEAR 18N110W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE ALONG THE ITCZ
AXIS SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE EASTERN N PACIFIC...S OF 25N AND W OF 115W.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO EXISTS BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
LOWER PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DUE TO A TROUGH EXTENDING S
FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS GRADIENT SUPPORTS
20 TO 25 KT WINDS JUST W OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS
A BROADER AREA OF 12 FT SEAS N OF 25N WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM OF
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
THIS MORNING...PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA WILL LESSEN TONIGHT AS THE TROUGHING
OVER MEXICO SHIFTS EASTWARD. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR E OF THIS RIDGE LATE THIS WEEK
WITH 8 TO 10 FT SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS PROPAGATING INTO
OUR AREA N OF 25N E OF 131W BY FRI AFTERNOON.  
 
CURRENTLY NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE E TO SE ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST WATERS W OF 115W. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
E TO SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
COVERAGE OF 8 FT SEAS WILL DECREASE THU AND FRI WITH WITH THE 8
FT SEAS MAINLY S OF 15N AND W OF 100W BY FRI AFTERNOON.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC WATERS IS HELPING TO GENERATE STRONG GAP
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST OVER THE W ATLC TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN...RESULTING IN GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WINDS OVER
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS
GAP WIND EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE W AWAY FROM THE SOURCE
REGION TODAY AND MERGE WITH NW SWELLS ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC. 

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORT FRESH
TO STRONG N WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS MORNING. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

$$
LATTO