000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
0405 UTC WED MAR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.              

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N90W TO 03N95W TO 03N125W TO 05N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 127W AND 131W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ W OF 138W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED NEAR 35N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 20N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N
OF THE ITCZ. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE N OF THE
AREA AND MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS THROUGH THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 117W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DECREASE WINDS OVER THIS AREA TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED. NW SWELL
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
115W. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD WHILE
SUBSIDING. BY WED AFTERNOON SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W. COVERAGE OF 8 FT SEAS
WILL DECREASE AFTERWARDS AND MAINLY COVER THE AREA S OF 20N AND
W OF 100W BY THU EVENING.
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE
OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
AND FALL TO 20 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY WED.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY LATE WED NIGHT. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC WATERS IS HELPING TO GENERATE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL
DIMINISH WINDS TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU EVENING. SWELLS GENERATED
BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT ARE PROPAGATING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
SOURCE REGION AND MERGING WITH SWELLS FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT SPREADING
W TO 110W BY SUNRISE WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
HAS FORCED A FRESH TO STRONG N BREEZE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
AL