000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222110
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
2205 UTC TUE MAR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       

GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STARTED TO RETREAT
EASTWARD. THIS IS VEERING THE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO
AND DECREASED WINDS FLOWING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND
FURTHER DECREASE TO 20 KT OR LESS WED MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N100W TO 05N120W TO 03N130W TO 03N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN
60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 122W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1030 MB CENTERED NEAR 36N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE
SE TO NEAR 21N114W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS N
OF THE ITCZ. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE N OF THE
AREA AND MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE WESTERN
WATERS THROUGH THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND
TROUGHING OVER MEXICO IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFF
THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TO NEAR 118W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DECREASE WINDS OVER THIS AREA TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED. NW SWELL
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF
120W. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD WHILE
SUBSIDING. BY WED AFTERNOON SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL COVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 110W. COVERAGE OF 8 FT SEAS
WILL DECREASE AFTERWARDS AND MAINLY COVER THE AREA S OF 20N AND
W OF 105W BY THU AFTERNOON.
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN
REGION COMBINES WITH TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA EARLY WED.
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DECREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 20 KT OR LESS
BY LATE WED NIGHT. 

GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC WATERS IS
HELPING TO GENERATE STRONG TO NEAR GALE GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS WILL DIMINISH WINDS TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THU AFTERNOON.
SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS GAP WIND EVENT ARE PROPAGATING WESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE SOURCE REGIONS AND MERGING WITH SWELLS FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
SPREADING W TO 110W BY SUNRISE WED.

GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA HAS
FORCED A FRESH N BREEZE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR
LESS BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$
AL