000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221517 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE MAR 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION CONTINUES WITH A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS...34 TO 45 KT...EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE COASTAL GULF AREA TO NEAR 13.5N96W. SEAS ARE IN THE 12-17 FT RANGE IN THIS AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY THROUGH WED...WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING AND BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT BY WED AFTERNOON. THE ABRUPT CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS ATTRIBUTABLE TO INCREASED TROUGHING OVER NE MEXICO WHICH WILL PUSH THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE W GULF AND DIRECTING N WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS EASTWARD. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N110W TO 05N119W TO 03N135W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W- 133W. ...DISCUSSION... 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N136W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH TO 17N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND MEANDER OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA...MAINTAINING THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH THU. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NW MEXICO HAS BROUGHT A FRESH TO STRONG N- NW BREEZE OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE N OF 28N TO 117.5W ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL SUNRISE WED WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8- 13 FT IN NW SWELL. LARGE NW SWELLS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 114W...WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 12-14 FT NEAR 32N126W. THE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E-SE AND COMBINE WITH SWELL GENERATED BY CENTRAL AMERICAN GAP WINDS...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 FT BY SUNRISE THU. GAP WINDS... GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT E INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WED MORNING AS TROUGHING OVER MEXICO....AND THE RESULTING PRES GRADIENT...SHIFTS EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD. A FRESH TO STRONG N-NW BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE WED N OF 30N AND WILL SHIFT S TO 27N-30N BY SUNSET BEFORE DIMINISHING. GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND FORCED WINDS TO FUNNEL INTO THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELIEVED TO BE AS STRONG AS 30 KT HERE. WINDS WILL PULSE DOWN TO 25 KT DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING TODAY AND INCREASE TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THE RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE WED INTO THU...WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KT DURING THIS TIME. SWELLS GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT SPREADING W TO 110W BY SUNRISE WED. GULF OF PANAMA...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CLIMATOLOGICAL LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA HAS FORCED A FRESH TO STRONG N-NW BREEZE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF PANAMA WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N79W TO 03N83W. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHRINK IN AREA THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WED MORNING AS HIGH PRES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WEAKENS. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8 FT. $$ SCHAUER