000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION CONTINUES WITH A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE
WINDS...34 TO 45 KT EXTENDING WELL S-SW FROM THE COASTAL GULF
AREA ITSELF TO NEAR 13N97W. SEAS HAVE PEAKED EARLIER THIS
EVENING AND HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL DECAY EXPECTED THROUGH TUE
NIGHT AS THE WIND FIELD DROPS BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT
18 TO 24 HOUR PERIOD. THEREAFTER BEYOND OVERNIGHT TUE INTO
WED...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF 8 TO 11 SEAS FROM 02N TO 13N BETWEEN 92W
AND 111W REMAINING ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL WATERS. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
A NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N105W TO 05N117W TO 02N140W.
A SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02S94W TO 02N120W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH EITHER AXIS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N87W TO 02N93W TO 02N98W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 88W AND
92W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB IS CENTERED N-NW OF THE AREA NEAR
35N138W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND THE EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E-NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THROUGH THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
MEXICO WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD OFF THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE TUE MORNING. THE NW TO N WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SEAS RANGING 8
TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. 

LARGE NW SWELLS COVER THE NORTHERN AND FAR WESTERN WATERS
GENERALLY N OF 20 W OF 115W AND S OF 20N W OF 120W WITH COMBINED
SEAS REACHING NEAR 13 FT. THE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD E-SE THROUGH WED.
 
GAP WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WED MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL
PROPAGATE FROM THE SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH SWELLS GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WITH SEAS
GREATER THAN 8 FT SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO 110W.

$$
HUFFMAN