000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A STRONG GALE OF N-NE WINDS CONTINUES THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION. THE GALE FORCE WINDS OF
34 TO 45 KT EXTEND WELL TO THE SSW FROM THE GULF TO NEAR 12N96W
AS WAS SHOWN BY THE 1532 ASCAT PASS. ASSOCIATED SEAS
ARE IN THE RANGE OF 12-20 FT. HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON TUE THIS WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL
VEER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED MORNING. SEAS IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL SUBSIDE TO 8-11 FT TUE EVENING AND TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N104W TO 03N113W TO 03N125W TO 02N132W
TO 01N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 05N87W TO 03N94W. SCATTERED/MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 85W-91W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 27N131W...THEN 
BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 24N140W. HIGH PRES OF
1024 MB IS ANALYZED AT 32N124W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 2N121W TO
181N08W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 108W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES...AND LOWER PRES IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
OVER THE WRN PORTION FROM ABOUT 07N-18N W OF 129W WITH LARGE NW-
N SWELL PROPAGATING THROUGH THOSE WATERS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LARGE NW-N SWELL HAS REACHED FROM NEAR
32N119W TO 19N125W TO 10N117W TO 01N128W TO 01N140W. RESULTANT
SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT...EXCEPT FOR LARGE SEAS OF 12-
16 FT NW OF A LINE FROM 32N127W TO 24N132W TO 20N140W. THE LARGE
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSE THROUGH WED WHILE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING. BY WED AFTERNOON...THE HIGHEST SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BE 10-11 FT N OF 22N BETWEEN 115W-121W AND 8-10 FT SEAS
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN A LINE FROM 0N110W TO 06N113W TO 04N120W TO
00N123W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 30N128W TO 23N140W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS.

THE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL LIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS
WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE WRN PORTION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO WILL INCREASE THE NW
WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
PENINSULA TO STRONG BREEZE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE
INTO TUE NIGHT WITH SEAS OF 10-12 FT IN NW SWELL.

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS LEADING TO STRONG NE-E WINDS
FUNNELING THROUGH NRN COSTA RICA AND ACROSS HE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.
AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FURTHER THROUGH TONIGHT...THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE GULF...AND WITH 20-25 KT
SPREADING WESTWARD TO NEAR 90W FROM 08N-11N. ON TUE MORNING THE
25-30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN 90 NM F A LINE FROM
FROM 11N86W TO 09N91W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT. THESE
SLOWLY DIMINISH ON TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER SWELLS
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE
SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8
FT SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO NEAR 113W BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$
AGUIRRE