000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION CONTINUES WITH A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE
WINDS...34 TO 45 KT EXTENDING WELL S-SW FROM THE COASTAL GULF
AREA ITSELF TO NEAR 13N96W. SEAS WILL PEAK NEAR 21 FT TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY. THIS WILL LOOSEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WINDS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL
VEER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY WED MORNING. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
            
THERE IS NO ITCZ IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 30N127W
TO 28N130W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 25N140W. HIGH PRESSURE
OF 1024 MB IS CENTERED NNW OF THE AREA NEAR 29N149W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER
THE WESTERN WATERS. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO WILL
HELP FOR WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE TUE MORNING AND WILL PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING. 

LARGE NW SWELLS COVER THE WATERS W OF THE FRONT WITH COMBINED
SEAS REACHING NEAR 16 FT. A PREVIOUS SET OF NW SWELLS IS
COVERING THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM 30N129W TO 20N140W. THE
AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 8 FT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
GAP WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND WILL FURTHER RAMP UP TO NEAR
GALE FORCE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED MORNING. SWELLS
GENERATED FROM THIS GAP WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE FROM THE
SOURCE REGION AND MERGE WITH SWELLS GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC GALE FORCE GAP WIND EVENT WITH SEAS GREATER THAN 8
FT SPREADING ALL THE WAY TO 110W. 

$$
AL