000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210937
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC REGION CONTINUES WITH A LARGE SWATH OF GALE FORCE
WINDS...34 TO 45 KT EXTENDING WELL S-SW FROM THE COASTAL GULF
AREA ITSELF TO NEAR 13N96W. AS THE CORE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS...40 TO 45 KT...PERSISTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SEAS
CURRENTLY RANGING 15 TO 19 FT WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO A
RANGE OF 18 TO 21 FT BY MON AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING VERY
GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE TUE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02S92W TO 03.4S101W AND FROM
03.4S114W TO 02S120W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX
WELL TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 47N138W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE VICINITY OF
40N129W. THE SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
31N126W TO 28N130W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N140W. WHILE
THE OVERALL WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINS 20 KT
OR LESS...SEAS RANGING FROM 9 TO 17 FT ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT
AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO A RANGE OF 10 TO 14
FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW...N-CENTRAL...AND W-CENTRAL WATERS
THROUGH EARLY TUE. THEREAFTER...WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATED...
REMAINING NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATE S-SE AND SUBSIDE...
INFLUENCING A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN WATERS GENERALLY W OF
113W. BY EARLY WED...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...THE
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH N-NW WINDS REACHING 20 TO 25 KT N
OF 27N. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED AT 27N127W
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N106W. THE OVERALL PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TO THE S WITHIN THE
ITCZ REGION IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH NE TRADES
FROM 06N TO 17N W OF 125W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 7 TO 10 FT. THE
TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO VARY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY AS NW
SWELL PROPAGATES S-SE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

OTHER GAP WINDS...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WITH 20-25
KT NE WINDS IS FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE THIS MORNING AND PULSE
EACH MORNING THROUGH THU. THE STRONGEST PULSE OF WINDS 20 TO 30
KT ARE EXPECTED TUE MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING 11 TO 12 FT AS
THE AREA OF HIGHEST SEAS TRANSLATES W-SW THROUGH TUE EVENING AND
MERGES WITH SEAS AND SWELL GENERATED FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT.

$$
HUFFMAN