000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181447 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI MAR 18 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A NORTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N94W TO 06N106W TO 03N115W TO04.5N125W TO BEYOND 04N140W. A SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03S103WTO 00.5S124W TO 04S140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE NORTHERN AXIS W OF 110W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN AXIS W OF 106W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO EXTREME NW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE. A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SW PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...THE FIRST EXITING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND MOVING INTO W MEXICO...AND A SECOND ACROSS THE NW WATERS NEAR 28N116W AND MOVING TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS SUPPORTING ELONGATED TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...WITH MODERATE NWLY WINDS NEAR 15 KT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OUT TO 116W AND LIGHT SW TO S WINDS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS OF BAJA GENERALLY RANGED 4-6 FT IN NW SWELL. FARTHER WEST...AS DEEP LAYERED UPPER CYCLONE OF CENTERED ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC N OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NEAR 46N154W...AND SUPPORTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 25.5N140W...WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLIES WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...AND MODERATE N- NW WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. SEAS WEST OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 8 FT ALONG THE FRONT TO 12-13 FT AT 30N140W IN NW SWELL. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SEAS OVERALL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. BY SUNDAY AS THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A REINFORCING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N134W TO 25N140W AND AGAIN INTRODUCE ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS ONCE AGAIN BUILDING TO 12 FT AT THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUN MORNING. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE TROPICS...A WEAKENING 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...NEAR 28N131W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 15N106W. THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH N TO NE TRADES S OF 20N AND W OF 116W...WITH SEAS RANGING 5-8 FT. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REACH THE CHIVELA PASS ON SUN. THE BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT. CURRENTLY...GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...WITH PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 40 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS DURING THIS EVENT. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REACH A RANGE OF ABOUT 15-19 FT SUN NIGHT INTO MON AFTERNOON IN THE GULF REGION AND DOWNWIND TO THE S AND SW. IN ADDITION...A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT WITH 20-25 KT NE WINDS IS SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO BRIEFLY TAKE PLACE MON MORNING AND LIKELY PULSE EACH MORNING THROUGH WED. $$ STRIPLING