000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...        
NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 07N88W TO 05N97W TO 04N107W. SOUTHERN
ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 00S100W TO 01S108W TO 00S120W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF NORTHERN AXIS BETWEEN 90W
AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST
WATERS AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 30N131W SE TO 16N105W. THE
RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES MOSTLY
NOTED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 05N TO 16N W OF 108W.
OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS IS
SUBSIDING SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH NW SWELL GENERALLY WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO 09N101W TO 03.4S113W. THIS AREA OF SEAS TO 10 FT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUBSIDING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE NW
CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL
ENTER THE AREA WITH FRESH S-SW WINDS PREVAILING EAST OF THE
FRONT AND MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH N-NW WINDS EXPECTED WEST
OF THE FRONT. SEAS TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL ARE FORECAST W OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS THE NW SWELL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD
AND OVERTAKE THE WATERS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT. BY EARLY
SATURDAY...SEAS 8 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST
OF A LINE FROM 31N127W TO 16N140W.

ELSEWHERE...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION BEYOND 48 HOURS...
A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND REACH THE CHIVELA PASS ON SUN. THE BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
GAP WIND EVENT. CURRENTLY...GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM
SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING...WITH PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING 40 KT DURING THIS EVENT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY
REACH UP TO 15 FT SUN NIGHT AND MON IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
HUFFMAN