000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170241
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

A NORTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N88W TO 05N95W TO 04N108W.
A SECOND SOUTHERN ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01S91W TO 02S109W TO
02S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
NORTHERN AXIS BETWEEN 90W-94W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 31N130W SE TO   THE HIGH SOUTHEASTWARD
TO 26N128W TO NEAR 18N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THE HIGH
IS ONLY PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE TRADES TO
FURTHER DIMINISH. A DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN E OF AN UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING MINIMAL
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FIRST ITCZ
BETWEEN 90W-94W. A JET STREAM BRANCH TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS NEWD WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 16N113W TO 19N108W TO CABO CORRIENTES...AND FROM THERE
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND NEWD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

NW SWELLS ARE INTERACTING WITH SECONDARY SW SWELLS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA W OF 110W. ALTIMETER PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED
PEAK WAVE HEIGHT VALUES OF 10-12 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION NEAR
111W AND 137W. THESE SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THU...THEN FURTHER TO 8 FT BY EARLY ON FRI AND TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY FRI EVENING.

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY
EARLY THU. FRESH TO STRONG SLY FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY WEAKER MODERATE NLY BEHIND IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 32N137W TO
28N140W THU AFTERNOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A
FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 32N133W TO 26N140W. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL
WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE DISSIPATING TROUGH PROPAGATING SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS UP TO AROUND 12 FT WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO 13 FT IN THE FAR NW CORNER ON FRI SUBSIDING
TO 11 FT LATE SAT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEYOND 48 HOURS...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND REACH THE CHIVELA PASS ON SUN. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
EVENT. CURRENTLY...GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SUN NIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING...WITH PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS POSSIBLY
REACHING 40 KT DURING THIS EVENT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REACH UP TO
15 FT SUN NIGHT AND MON IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
AGUIRRE