000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

A NORTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N88W TO 01N114W. A
SECOND...SOUTHERN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05S91W TO 03S110W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NORTHERN AXIS FROM
88W TO 102W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
38N132W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
13N103W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS ONLY
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL ALLOW THE TRADEWINDS TO
FURTHER DIMINISH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALONG 120W
SUPPORTS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
111W AND 116W. 

NW SWELLS ARE INTERACTING WITH SECONDARY SW SWELLS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA W OF 110W. ALTIMETER PASSES THIS MORNING INDICATED PEAK
WAVE HEIGHT VALUES ALONG 111W AND 137W OF 10 TO 12 FT. THESE
SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BY FRIDAY EVENING WILL DROP
BELOW 8 FT. 

A COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR NW CORNER AT 30N140W ON THURSDAY.
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROCEED THE FRONT FOLLOWED
BY WEAKER MODERATE NORTHERLIES BEHIND THE FRONT. A NEW SET OF NW
SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE WANING FRONT PROPAGATING SE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE SWELL WILL BRIEFLY REACH 12 FT FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAKER WINDS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
REACH THE CHIVELA PASS ON SUNDAY. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND
EVENT. CURRENTLY...GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS
POSSIBLY REACHING 40 KT DURING THIS EVENT. WAVE HEIGHTS MAY
REACH UP TO 15 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
LATTO