000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160759
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0815 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N87W TO 03N115W.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION EXISTS CURRENTLY.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT
37N134W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH SOUTHEASTWARD TO
13N103W.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE HIGH IS ONLY
PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  THIS WILL
FURTHER DIMINISH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH WEAKENS.  

NW SWELLS INTERACTING WITH SECONDARY SW SWELLS COVER MOST OF THE
AREA WEST OF 110W.  A 0310Z ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED PEAK WAVE
HEIGHT VALUES ALONG 130W OF 10 TO 12 FT.  THESE WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND BY FRIDAY WILL DROP BELOW OUR 8 FT THRESHOLD.

A COLD FRONT WILL REACH OUR NW CORNER OF 30N140W BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROCEED THE FRONT FOLLOWED
BY WEAKER MODERATE NORTHERLIES.  A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL
ARRIVE BEHIND THE WANING FRONT PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
THESE WILL BRIEFLY REACH 12 FT FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKER
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REACH THE CHIVELA PASS BY SUNDAY.
THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INDUCE A GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT.  GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...AS INDICATED BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.  WAVE HEIGHTS MAY PEAK AROUND
15 FT ON MONDAY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

$$
LANDSEA