000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N84W TO 03N100W THEN RESUMES FROM
06N119W TO 02N130W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 125W. A SECOND ITCZ AXIS IS S
OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 03.4S BETWEEN 98W AND 107W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NEAR 34N136W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH
24N134W TO 16N110W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE
BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED IN THE W CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N
OF THE ITCZ. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE INTO THE AREA
REACHING 30N130W BY THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY.

NW SWELLS COMMINGLING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF
ABOUT 106W. THIS MIXED SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND CONTRACT
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER ON WED...REACHING
30N140W BY EARLY THU. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT WHICH WILL MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO THE FAR NW
PORTION NEAR 30N140W...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THU AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE WANING
FRONT PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE AIDE OF
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE
WED WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SAT. LOOKING AHEAD...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRES
BUILDING DOWN ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT
NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUN AND SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
LEWITSKY