000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152145
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N118W TO 01N130W TO 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS. A SECONDARY ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 03.4S
BETWEEN 98W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM N OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A 1029 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS
NEAR 34N137W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SE OF THE HIGH THROUGH
22N121W TO 18N110W. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE
BASIN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONCENTRATED IN THE W CENTRAL
WATERS WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT SW OF THE RIDGING AND N
OF THE ITCZ. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SE INTO THE AREA
REACHING 30N130W BY THU. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY.

NW SWELLS COMMINGLING WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-13 FT ACROSS THE WATERS W OF
ABOUT 107W. THIS MIXED SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND CONTRACT
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER ON WED...REACHING
30N140W BY EARLY THU. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT WHICH WILL MANAGE TO SNEAK INTO THE FAR NW
PORTION NEAR 30N140W...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THU AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE WANING
FRONT PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE WED WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FOLLOWING NIGHT.

$$
LEWITSKY