000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151601
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

A SPLIT ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03S92W TO 03S106W TO
01S122W...AND THEN FROM 02N126W TO BEYOND 02N140W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 00N TO 06N
BETWEEN 120W AND 140W...AND FROM 06S TO 01S BETWEEN 97W AND
111W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTER THAT IS
CENTERED NEAR 32N142W TO 24N122W TO 15N100W. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN W OF 110W. 8 TO 12
FT NW SWELL COVERS THIS SAME AREA WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS LOCATED
WITHIN 360 NM W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ALONG 15N W OF 130W.
THE MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE BASIN WHILE
VEERING SLIGHTLY AS THE HIGH CENTER SLIDES NE TOWARD CALIFORNIA.
THE AREA OF NW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE WHILE DIMINISHING TO
UNDER 10 FT WED NIGHT AND UNDER 9 FT ON THU NIGHT AS THE AREA OF
SWELL MERGES WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL S OF 10N. ON
THU...SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW CORNER WILL INCREASE TO FRESH
TO STRONG AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ENTER OUR AREA THU AFTERNOON WITH A NEW
AREA OF NW SWELL MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR NW AREA THU NIGHT.  

AREA OF SW SWELL S OF THE EQUATOR WILL DRIFT NW AND MERGE WITH
NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC NW SWELL THROUGH WED WITH SEAS W OF 110 S
OF THE EQUATOR STARTING AT 7 TO 8 FT...INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 FT
BY THU. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS ARE PULSING THIS MORNING IN THE
RANGE OF FRESH TO STRONG IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WITH THE SUPPORT OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY TO 6 TO FEET DUE TO THE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND WILL PULSE BACK TO FRESH TO STRONG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. OVERALL WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW 20 KT BEYOND
WED MORNING. 

$$
LATTO