000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0930 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 02N80W TO 01N84W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ITCZ FROM 03S88W TO 03S91W TO 03.4S96W
TO 03.4S102W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 01S SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 98W AND 109W. ITCZ FROM
04N111W TO 04N117W TO 01N126W TO 02N134W TO 02N140W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 134W AND 138W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 121W AND 124W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 127W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N143W...TO 24N129W AND 17N115W...AND ACROSS THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS TO 13N104W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE COMPARATIVELY FASTEST
TRADEWINDS ARE IN THE WEST CENTRAL WATERS DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
AND THE LOWER PRESSURES THAT ARE ALONG THE ITCZ. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS POSSIBLE FROM 27N NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS THAT ARE AROUND THE RIDGE ARE BEING
FUNNELED ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF DAY ONE OR SO TO RANGE FROM 13 FEET TO 16 FEET. SEA
HEIGHTS FROM THE LATEST ALTIMETER PASS ALREADY SHOW SUCH VALUES.
THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...DURING WHICH TIME
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 12N NORTHWARD FROM 104W WESTWARD. A COLD
FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA BY 72
HOURS...AND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE NEAR 26N132W. 

LARGE NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO MIX WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW
SWELLS. THE RESULT WILL BE COMBINED SEAS OF 8 FEET TO 14 FT
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN W OF ABOUT 110W. THESE SEAS
WILL DECAY GRADUALLY TO A RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET BY 48
HOURS. A NEW SET OF NW SWELL WILL BREACH 30N140W ON THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT WILL PROPAGATE GRADUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TODAY STARTS WITH THE WINDS PULSING RIGHT
NOW IN THE RANGE OF FRESH TO STRONG...IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
FRESH SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO FEET DUE TO THE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS. THE INTERVALS OF COMPARATIVELY FASTER WIND SPEEDS WILL
LAST FOR 12 HOURS OR DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

$$
MT