000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAR 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

ITCZ FROM 08N103W TO 06N111W TO 00N135W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90
NM TO 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 105W AND 113W...WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND117W...AND WITHIN 50 NM TO 75
NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 119W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N140W TO 25N123W TO 17N110W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM 05N NORTHWARD FROM 110W WESTWARD. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO
PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 11N TO 15N FROM 134W
WESTWARD...AND FROM 18N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 135W. THE 20 TO 25
KNOT WIND SPEEDS DISAPPEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY. NO
MORE TRADEWIND FLOW IS APPARENT IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL OF
TUESDAY.

AN AREA OF SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 15 FEET IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N123W
19N140W. THE SWELL WILL FADE WITH TIME DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...RANGING FROM 8 TO 13 FEET BY THE END OF DAY ONE...AND TO
A RANGE OF 8 FEET TO 10 FEET AT THE END OF DAY TWO.

THE EAST-TO-WEST SURFACE RIDGE WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
27N/28N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION.
A FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FROM 28N NORTHWARD WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXPECT 8 TO 11 FT SEAS NOW...THAT WILL
BUILD TO 9 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL BY TUE MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY BY TUESDAY. IT WILL MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
NE FROM 33N140W TO 39N132W. THE RESULTING TRADES ACROSS THE W-
CENTRAL WATERS ALSO WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS.

A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS PUSHING THE SEA HEIGHTS TO A
RANGE OF 12 FEET TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
RUNS FROM 30N123W BEYOND 19N140W. THE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A
MAXIMUM VALUE OF 12 TO 13 FT IN A 300 NM SWATH OF SEAS
STRETCHING FROM 30N120W TO 15N140W. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL BEGIN
TO MERGE ON MONDAY ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WITH SW SWELL
THAT IS ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE SW SWELL
THAT IS BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST
TONIGHT.

GAP WIND AREAS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION IS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE A WEAK PULSING OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WINDS...THAT WILL START AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY AND END AROUND
MIDNIGHT OR SO. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE LESS THAN 20 KNOTS FOR
THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO AFTER THAT TIME...RIGHT UP TO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. A PULSE OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST-
TO-EAST WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE HOURS THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY.

$$
MT