000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140245 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON MAR 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM07N85W TO 05.5N93W TO 04N98W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 02.5N116W TO 02.5N122W TO BEYOND 00N129W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 129W. ...DISCUSSION... AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SOMEWHAT NARROW RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N132W DOMINATING THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE EXTENDS SE TO 13N97W AND W-NW TO BEYOND 29N150W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES G FROM THE ITCZ TO 23N W OF 115W. AN AREA OF TRADE WINDS 20-25 KT IS NOTED FROM FROM 06N TO 11N W OF 128W. FADING NW SWELL STILL DOMINATES ALL BUT NW PORTIONS OF THIS AREA...WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE FROM 8 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART...TO 10-11 FT WESTERN PART. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 27N/28N THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. A FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE N OF 25N WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 8 TO 11 FT SEAS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD 9 TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL BY TUE MORNING AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED. BY TUE...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NE FROM 33N140W TO 39N132W. THE RESULTING TRADES ACROSS THE W- CENTRAL WATERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN WATERS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS...AND A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. THIS SWELL HAS BUILT SEAS TO 12-16 FT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NW WATERS...NW OF A LINE FROM 30N126W TO 23N140W. AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AROUND 12 TO 13 FT IN A 300 NM SWATH OF SEAS STRETCHING FROM 30N120W TO 15N140W. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL BEGIN TO MERGE ON MON ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WITH SW SWELL ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. MEANWHILE...THE SW SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA COAST TONIGHT. GAP WIND AREAS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE WEAK PULSING OF FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE TO E WINDS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON DUE TO PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ STRIPLING