000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...          
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06.5N84W TO 06N96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND
94W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N103W TO 02.5N117W TO 00.5N130W TO
03.5S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N129W THAT INFLUENCES
THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 13N97W AND W-
NW TO BEYOND 29N150W. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES MOSTLY
OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 22N W OF 115W. AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED FROM 06N TO 15NW OF 133W.
FADING NW SWELL STILL DOMINATES THIS AREA...WITH SEAS IN THE
RANGE FROM 8 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN PART...TO 11 FT WESTERN PART.

AS THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 27N/28N THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN MODERATE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. A FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE N OF 25N WITHIN 120-
150 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 8 TI 11 FT SEAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL BY TUE MORNING
AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED. BY TUE...THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
NE FROM 33N140W TO 39N132W. THE RESULTING TRADES ACROSS THE W-
CENTRAL WATERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN WATERS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE 18 TO 21 SECOND PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 12-16 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NW WATERS
AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TUE...SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AROUND 12 TO 13 FT IN A 300 NM SWATH OF SEAS
STRETCHING FROM 30N120W TO 15N140W. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL BEGIN
TO MERGE ON MON ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WITH SW SWELL
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE. MEANWHILE...THE SW SWELL
BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA COAST TONIGHT.

GAP WIND AREAS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION IS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE WEAK PULSING OF FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE TO E
WINDS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON DUE TO PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW.

$$
STRIPLING