000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N85W TO 04N90W TO 05N98W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 86W AND
92W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N103W TO 02N120W TO 00N132W TO
01N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 105 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N129W THAT INFLUENCES
THE NW AND N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGING...THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES WITH AN AREA OF MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADES MOSTLY OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 22N W OF 115W. AN
AREA OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED
FROM 07N TO 20N W OF 135W. SEAS IN THE AREA RANGE FROM 7 FT
EASTERN PART...TO 10 FT WESTERN PART.

IN ADDITION...AS THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
27N/28N THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. NW TO N
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE LEVELS
THROUGH TUE N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL BY TUE MORNING
AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED. BY TUE...THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MERGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
NE FROM 33N140W TO 39N132W. THE RESULTING TRADES ACROSS THE W-
CENTRAL WATERS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO MODERATE TO
FRESH LEVELS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN WATERS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW OF THE
UNITED STATES. THE 18 TO 21 SECOND PERIOD SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS
TO 16 FT TODAY ACROSS THE NW WATERS AS THE SWELL PROPAGATES
SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TUE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AROUND 12
TO 13 FT IN A 300 NM SWATH OF SEAS STRETCHING FROM 30N120W TO
15N140W. THIS SWELL TRAIN WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH SW SWELL
ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ON MON. MEANWHILE...THE
SW SWELL ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA COAST BY TONIGHT.

GAP WIND AREAS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION IS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE WEAK PULSING OF FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE TO E
WINDS SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON DUE TO PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN