000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
1005 UTC SUN MAR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...      

A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 06N85W TO 04N90W TO 05N95W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 87W
AND 95W. ITCZ FROM 01N110W TO 01N120W BEYOND 00N128W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N
TO 08N BETWEEN 102W AND 106W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE FROM 04N115W TO 03N117W TO 03N120W TO 02N126W TO
01N130W TO 00N132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

THE EARLIER COLD FRONT...AT 13/0000 UTC...HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLIES ABOUT 20 KNOTS IN
THE AREA OF THE NOW-DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...N OF 25N FOR DAY ONE...AND NORTH OF 28N FOR DAY TWO.
EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS...IN
GENERAL...FROM 10N TO 20N FROM 120W WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 13 FEET.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N140W TO A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N129W...TO 28N119W...TO 17N109W.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 27N.
A TRAILING FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND IT WILL INTRODUCE ANOTHER PULSE OF
LARGE NW SWELL. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 12 FEET TO 15 FEET
ON SUNDAY. A LARGER AREA OF GENERALLY SUBSIDING SEAS IN A RANGE
OF 12 TO 14 FT WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY. LONG-PERIOD CROSS-
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARD AND REACH
THE SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA COAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...
CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

GAP WIND AREAS...NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS WILL BE
PRESENT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ENDING IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON OF TODAY SUNDAY. EXPECT A PULSE OF SIMILAR WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE COMPARATIVELY FASTER WIND SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH ON MONDAY IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN START AGAIN
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT...EARLY ON TUESDAY.

$$
MT