000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...       
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N84.5W TO 05N103W TO 01N113W TO
0.05S140W.WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION NOTED S OF 03N BETWEEN 107W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE AND FAR N
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND EXTENDS FROM
29N11W IN SONORA MEXICO...SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 27N113W TO 24N117W THEN
BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO BEYOND 19N140W. EARLY
AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED FRESH NORTHERLIES AROUND
20 KT N OF 25N ACROSS THE WATERS OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE
FRESH TO LOCALIZED STRONG NE WINDS WERE NOTED S OF THE FRONT TO
ABOUT 04N W OF 115W. STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVERED FROM
08N TO 18N W OF 131W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL. THIS AREA
OF FRESH TRADEWINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MON MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS TO
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA. 

AS THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH
SUN...AND THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION SUPPORTING
A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE GENERALLY N OF 28N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PROLONGED FETCH ALONG THE COAST WILL
BUILD SEAS INTO A RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT MIXED WITH LONGER PERIOD
NW SWELL.

BY SUN...AS THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ALONG 27N...A TRAILING FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION BORDER AND
INTRODUCE ANOTHER PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-15 FT ON SUN...AND A LARGER AREA
OF GENERALLY SUBSIDING SEAS IN A RANGE OF 12 TO 14 FT ON MON.
MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
TOWARD AND REACH THE SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA COAST
BY SUN NIGHT.

GAP WIND AREAS...FRESH OFFSHORE NE TO E WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION...AND AREA FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-
25 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN DUE TO PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW...THEN TO AROUND 20 KT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING