000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT MAR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03.4S96W TO 01S99W...AND FROM 06N102W TO
00N111W TO 01S120W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 105W...AND S OF 03N BETWEEN 106W AND
120W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NEAR 30N113W TO 28N115W INTO THE PACIFIC TO
22N124W THEN DISSIPATING TO 20N131W. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER
DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLIES N OF 23N IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT...HOWEVER FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE WINDS WERE
NOTED WEST OF THE DISSIPATING PORTION OF THE FRONT MERGING WITH
AN AREA OF FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS. THE
OVERALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS REACHED FROM 08N TO 18N W OF
131W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. THIS AREA OF TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MON MORNING AS
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE NORTH ALONG 27N MAINTAINING AN
AMPLE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH SUN...AND THE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...AN
INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
REGION SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS GENERALLY N
OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. PROLONGED
FETCH ALONG THE COAST WILL BUILD SEAS INTO A RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT
IN NW SWELL.

BY SUN...AS THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ALONG 27N...A TRAILING FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION BORDER AND
INTRODUCE ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS 12 TO 15 FT ON
SUN...AND A LARGER AREA OF GENERALLY SUBSIDING SEAS IN A RANGE
OF 12 TO 14 FT ON MON. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE
18 TO 20 SECONDS. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE TOWARD AND REACH THE SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA COAST BY SUN NIGHT.

GAP WIND AREAS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION IS FORECAST TO
EXPERIENCE PULSING NE TO E WINDS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN DUE TO
PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
HUFFMAN