000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT MAR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0915 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
          
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02S86W TO 03.4S91W TO 01S98W...AND FROM
01N105W TO 00N112W TO 01S117W BEYOND 02S120W. SCATTERED STRONG S
OF 01S BETWEEN 106W AND 111W...FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 114W AND
118W...AND S OF 01S BETWEEN 117W AND 119W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 98W AND 107W.

...DISCUSSION...                                          

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N115W TO 22N128W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N128W TO 19N134W TO 18N140W. ONE AREA OF
NW 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FEET SEA HEIGHTS IS ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SECOND AREA OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 10 FEET IS IMMEDIATELY
TO THE NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 140W.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO
48 HOURS. IT WILL BECOME A SHEARLINE ALONG THE WESTERNMOST END
EARLY ON SUNDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT A BIT MORE OF NW WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ALONG THE WESTERNMOST
PART OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS THE 12 TO 14 SECOND
PERIOD NW SWELL SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUN MORNING. ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
INTRODUCING ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS BUILDING 12 TO
16 FT ACROSS THE FAR NW PARTS OF THE AREA.

AN AREA OF SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET THAT
ALREADY HAS BEEN IN PLACE WITH THE ORIGINAL ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND NOW EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...EVENTUALLY BUILDS TO VALUES
THAT MAY RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 15 FEET AT 48 HOURS...ON MONDAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

A SEPARATE AREA OF SEA HEIGHTS...WITH A RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 11
FEET IN NW SWELL...COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 02N TO
11N BETWEEN 98W AND 114W. THIS AREA DISAPPEARS IN 12 HOURS OR
SO...WITH SEA HEIGHTS FALLING TO LESS THAN 8 FEET.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WINDS RANGING
FROM 20 KNOTS TO 25 KNOTS FROM 30N NORTHWARD...FOR THE NEXT 9
HOURS OR SO.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS THE 12 TO 14 SECOND
PERIOD NW SWELL SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUN MORNING. BY
SUN...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
INTRODUCING ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS BUILDING 12 TO
16 FT ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

GAP WIND AREAS...EXPECT A PULSE OF NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS STARTING THIS MORNING...AND LASTING FOR ABOUT 12
HOURS OR SO. THE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT PULSE OF WIND
WILL RESUME AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ON SUNDAY...DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. IT WILL STOP AFTER 12
HOURS OR SO...AND THEN IT WILL RESUME AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

$$
MT