000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120420
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
          
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06.5N94W TO 00.5N114W TO 00.5N126W TO BEYOND
04S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03S TO 03N
BETWEEN 110W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                          

ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER EMBEDDED IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND 
ACROSS N CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN DIEGO
CALIFORNIA TO 30N118.5W TO 20N136W THEN  BECOMES A STATIONARY
FRONT TO 18.5N140W. STRONG NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE
OCCURRING N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 123W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9
TO 13 FT IN NW SWELL. SW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT E
OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE PRESENT N OF THE
FRONT TO 24N AND W OF 130W. FRESH NE TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING S OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 120W...
WHERE NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE WIND SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS 8-10
FT. THIS W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE
THROUGH SAT AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS TO THE S SAT INTO SUN...WHERE SEAS WILL REMAINS 8 TO
10 FT WITH NW SWELL.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH FRESH TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG LEVELS GENERALLY N OF 29N TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS WEST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N WITH NW TO N WINDS REACHING
FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING.
 
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS THE 12 TO
14 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUN MORNING. BY
SUN...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
INTRODUCING ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS BUILDING 12 TO
16 FT ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL MOVING SE ACROSS THE
AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS IT PROPAGATES SE
INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN WATERS. SEAS WERE GENERALLY 8-11 FT IN
THIS NW SWELL THIS EVENING AFTERNOON...FROM 00N TO 13N BETWEEN
98W AND 119W . THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND FADE
THROUGH LATE SAT...MOVING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL WATERS SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN.

GAP WIND AREAS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION SHOULD EXPECT NE TO
E WINDS PULSING TO AROUND 25 KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN DUE TO PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW.

$$ 
STRIPLING