000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112207
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI MAR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.              
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 
          
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM FROM 06.5N94.5W TO 00.5N110W TO 00.5N123W
TO BEYOND 04S140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
NOTED FROM 02S TO 03N BETWEEN 112W AND 124W.

...DISCUSSION...                                          

ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...ANOTHER DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER EMBEDDED IN A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING
ASHORE ACROSS N CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS TO 30N122W TO 20N136W THEN BECOMES A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 19N140W. THE FRONT HAS RECENTLY MERGED WITH
A PREVIOUS DISSIPATING FRONT AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG TO
GALE FORCE NW WINDS W OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH
STRONG NW WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT N OF 28N W OF THE FRONT TO
128W...WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 9 TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL. SW WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT E OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG
NE WINDS ARE PRESENT N OF W PORTIONS OF THE FRONT...S OF 24N TO
THE FRONT AND W OF 130W. FRESH NE TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
S OF THE FRONT TO THE ITCZ...GENERALLY W OF 120W...WHERE NW
SWELL IS MIXING WITH NE WIND SWELL TO PRODUCESEAS 8-10 FT. THIS
W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEARLINE THROUGH
SAT AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS TO
THE S SAT INTO SUN...WHERE SEAS WILL REMAINS 8 TO 10 FT WITH NW
SWELL.

AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA COAST...WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH FRESH TO OCCASIONAL
STRONG LEVELS GENERALLY N OF 29N TONIGHT LATE INTO EARLY SAT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS WEST OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES. IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 26N WITH NW TO N WINDS REACHING FRESH TO
STRONG LEVELS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING.
 
OTHERWISE...THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THE FRONT IS THE 12 TO
14 SECOND PERIOD NW SWELL SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY SUN MORNING. BY
SUN...ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
INTRODUCING ANOTHER PULSE OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS BUILDING 12 TO
16 FT ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH SEAS IN LARGE NW SWELL MOVING SE ACROSS THE
AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE AS IT PROPAGATES SE
INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERN WATERS. SEAS WERE GENERALLY 8-11 FT IN
THIS NW SWELL THIS AFTERNOON...FROM 01S TO 18.5N BETWEEN 98W AND
124W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND FADE THROUGH LATE
SAT...MOVING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

GAP WIND AREAS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION SHOULD EXPECT NE TO
E WINDS PULSING TO AROUND 25 KT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...AND
AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN DUE TO PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE
FLOW.

$$ 
STRIPLING