000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A FIRST COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING...PASSING THROUGH 30N127W TO
25N132W AND 20N140W. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PASSING
THROUGH 30N130W TO 26N133W BEYOND 23N140W. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS
THAT WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT EARLIER HAVE
BEEN REPLACED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 25 KNOTS TO 30 KNOTS FROM 27N
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE SECOND FRONT. THE SEA HEIGHTS THAT
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT ARE RANGING FROM
12 FEET TO 15 FEET. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT N OF 27N WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10
FT. SEAS AREA GENERALLY 9-13 FT ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT
AS FRESH NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA. FOR
FRIDAY...THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
SECOND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY OVERTAKING IT...AND REACHING A
POSITION FROM 30N119W TO 27N121W TO 19N140W FRI EVENING...AND
THEN CONTINUING EASTWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE...AND
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N112W TO 22N120W...CONTINUING AS A
SHEAR LINE TO 18.5N140W BY SAT EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
GRADUALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FRESH NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BEING
CONFINED TO N OF 28N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM NW OF THE FRONT. NE
WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF THE SHEAR LINE ACROSS FAR W
SECTIONS WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT IN NW SWELL. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N93W TO 03N103W TO 01N110W TO 01N122W
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OF 00N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM TO THE NORTH
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...WITHIN 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 101W...FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 113W
AND 120W...FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 136W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN
MEXICO STILL...CLOSE TO THE BORDER OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A
LEADING COLD FRONT IS WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN LOUISIANA AND
ITS NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO CABO CORRIENTES AND
EXTEND OFFSHORE TO 116W. THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL U.S.A.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE STRONG NW WINDS
THAT HAVE BEEN PRESENT DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED THERE. THE SEA HEIGHTS IN THE
RANGE OF 8-13 FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL THERE FROM 01N TO 22N
BETWEEN 98W AND 132W....WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS WELL OFFSHORE OF
CABO CORRIENTES AND SE OF LAS ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.
THIS AREA OF SWELL IS FORECAST TO FADE GRADUALLY AS IT
PROPAGATES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 8 FOOT
SEAS IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
GRADUALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
MEXICAN COASTLINE THROUGH FRIDAY.
 
A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 24N123W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N107W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 105W. THE HIGH CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. A NEW RIDGE THAT BUILDS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE FAR WESTERN PART
OF THE AREA...FROM NEAR 10N TO 14N W OF 137W...AND ALSO FROM 03N
TO 19N W OF 127W IN 48 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE...TO BRIEFLY...FRESH NE WINDS
THERE WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT.

$$ 
MT