000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.              
 
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
EXTENDS FROM 30N130W TO 21.5N140W AND WAS WEAKENING TONIGHT AS
IT CONTINUED EASTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND REINFORCING
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED QUICKLY INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA
TODAY AND EXTENDS FROM 30N134W TO 25.5N140W. AN 1828 UTC ASCAT
PASS ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS SHOWED NW GALE WINDS TO 40 KT NW OF
THE FRONT JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHILE WINDS TO 35 KT
WERE DEPICTED S OF 30N. THE NW GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION NOF27N BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 27N
BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE AREA. SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 12 TO 18 FT. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WINDS
PREVAIL WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT N OF 27N WITH
RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT. SEAS AREA GENERALLY 9-13 FT ELSEWHERE
BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT AS FRESH NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS
THE AREA. ON FRI THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT GRADUALLY OVERTAKING IT...AND
REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N119W TO 27N121W TO 19N140W FRI
EVENING...AND THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N112W TO 22N120W THEN CONTINUE AS
A SHEAR LINE TO 18.5N140W BY SAT EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH FRESH NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT BECOME
CONFINED TO N OF 28N WITHIN ABO0UT 240 NM NW OFTHE FRONT. NE
WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF THE SHEAR LINE ACROSS FAR W
PORTIONS WITH SEAS OF 9-12 FT IN NW SWELL. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 01N110W TO 01.5N130W TO BEYOND
01N140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 00N TO 03.5N W OF 124W TO BEYOND
140W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO SHIFT E ACROSS ACROSS THE N HALF OF MEXICO...AND IS NOW
CENTERED ACROSS NE MEXICO AND DEEP SOUTHERN TEXAS. A LEADING
COLD FRONT WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS
ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE ERN
PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 09N101W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN STATES OF MEXICO AND THEN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A WEAKER SECONDARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO FROM THE GULF COASTAL STATES S-SW ACROSS THE MEXICO CITY
AREA TO THE COAST JUST EAST OF ACAPULCO. MODERATE NWLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TO CABO CORRIENTES AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO 116W. THE
DEEP LAYERED LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH
FRI BEFORE LIFTING NE TO OVER THE S/CENTRAL U.S. FRI NIGHT AND
SAT.

OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...THE STRONG NW WINDS
THAT OCCURRED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED THERE.
SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-13 FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL THERE FROM 06N
TO 21N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W....WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS WELL
OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES AND SE OF LAS ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.
THIS AREA OF SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FADE AS IT
PROPAGATES SE...WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO SHRINK
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICAN COASTLINE THROUGH FRI.
 
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27N123W WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING SE TO 17N107W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF
ABOUT 110W. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24
HOURS...HOWEVER NEW RIDGING THAT BUILDS ESE INTO THE WRN PORTION
OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE FAR W PART
FROM NEAR 10N TO 14N W OF 137W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 19N W OF
127W IN 48 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR MODERATE...TO BRIEFLY...FRESH NE WINDS THERE WITH SEAS
OF 8-9 FT.

$$ 
STRIPLING