000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102223 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU MAR 10 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS ANALYZED 30N131W TO 23N140W. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT HAS MOVED QUICKLY INTO THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 30N138.5W TO 29N140W. AN 1828 UTC ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE NW PORTIONS SHOWED NW GALE WINDS TO 40 KT NW OF THE FRONT JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHILE WINDS TO 35 KT WERE DEPICTED S OF 30N. SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE RUNNING 13 TO 16 FT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WINDS PREVAIL WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT N OF 27N WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT. SEAS AREA GENERALLY 9-13 FT ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT AS FRESH NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE AREA. BY EARLY FRI...THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT ALONG A PSN FROM 32N125W TO 24N136W THEN TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE TO EXTEND W OF THE AREA AT 20N140W. SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-11 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL. THE SECOND FRONT...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY SAT IN THE FAR NE PORTION AND INLAND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE FORECAST TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N115W TO 24N125W TO 19N140W EARLY ON SAT. NE WINDS OF 20- 25 KT ARE FORECAST AT THAT TIME FROM 19N TO 20N W OF 128W WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N102W TO 01.5N120W TO 00N133W TO BEYOND 01S140W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 00N TO 03.5N BETWEEN 129WAND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UNUSUALLY STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS THE N HALF OF MEXICO...HAVING SHIFTED SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY AND NOW CENTERED ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTALES. THE LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO... AND SW TO OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE ERN PACIFIC FROM NEAR PUERTO ANGEL TO 10N100W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED ALONG AND EASTOF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SECONDARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO FROM THE GULF COASTAL STATES S-SW TO JUST W OF MEXICO CITY TO THE COAST JUST WEST OF ACAPULCO. MODERATE NWLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT PREVAIL THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH FRI BEFORE LIFTING NE TO OVER THE S/CENTRAL CONUS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...THE STRONG NW WINDS THAT OCCURRED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MOSTLY MODERATE WINDS AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED THERE. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL PREVAIL THERE FROM05NTO28N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W....WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THIS AREA OF SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FADE AS IT PROPAGATES SE...WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO SHRINK SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICAN COASTLINE THROUGH FRI MORNING. A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 17N107W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF ABOUT 110W. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS...HOWEVER NEW RIDGING THAT BUILDS ESE INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE FAR W PART FROM NEAR 10N TO 14N W OF 137W...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 19N W OF 127W IN 48 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE...TO BRIEFLY...FRESH NE WINDS THERE WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. $$ STRIPLING