000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101611 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU MAR 10 2016 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NEWLY FORMED ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENTLY IDENTIFIABLE. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N98W TO 03N110W TO BELOW THE EQUATOR AT 125W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 127W -130W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 123W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UNUSUALLY STRONG DEEP LAYERED LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALES. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING SE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO... AND SW TO OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE ERN PACIFIC FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO 12N100W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR PORTION OF MEXICO FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 100W- 105W. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH FRI BEFORE LIFTING NE TO OVER THE S/CENTRAL CONUS FRI NIGHT. OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...THE STRONG NW WINDS THAT OCCURRED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE DIMINISHED TO MOSTLY MODERATE WINDS AS THE CULPRIT PRES GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED THERE. SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 8-12 FT DUE TO A NW SWELL ARE CONFINED TO WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED FROM 30N118W TO 22N110W TO 12N99W TO 03N106W TO 01N120W TO 01N140W TO 16N140W TO 30N118W. THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS IS CONFINED FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 105W AND 118W. THIS AREA OF SWELL IS FORECAST BY WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE TO GRADUALLY SHRINK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH MAX WAVE HEIGHT EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 8-9 FT. LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICAN COASTLINE THROUGH THU MORNING. THE 12Z SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS HAS A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER AT 28N125W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SEWD TO 20N115W TO 15N105W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF ABOUT 112W. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS...HOWEVER NEW RIDGING THAT BUILDS ESE INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE FAR W PART FROM NEAR 10N TO 14N W OF 137W ...AND ALSO FROM 03N TO 19N W OF 127W IN 48 HOURS. THE PRES GRADIENT SHOULD BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE...TO AT TIMES...FRESH NE WINDS THERE WITH SEAS OF 8-9 FT. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AT 12Z ALONG A PSN FROM 32N131W TO SW OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 24N140W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FAST APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT N OF 29N WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8-10 FT. 8-12 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N126W TO 25N140W. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE FIRST FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FROM 32N130W TO 23N140W...WHILE THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG A PSN FROM 32N138W TO 29N140W. SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SECOND FRONT WITH LARGE SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT IN NW SWELL. BY EARLY FRI...THE FIRST COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT ALONG A PSN FROM 32N125W TO 24N136W THEN TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE TO EXTEND W OF THE AREA AT 20N140W. SW 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 10-11 FT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED N OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN NW SWELL. THE SECOND FRONT...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY SAT IN THE FAR NE PORTION AND INLAND NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA. NW SWELL PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-12 FT ARE FORECAST TO THE NW OF A LINE FROM 32N115W TO 24N125W TO 19N140W EARLY ON SAT. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST AT THAT TIME FROM 19N TO 20N W OF 128W WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT. $$ AGUIRRE